Monday’s segment of CNBC Cryptotrader entitled ‘The Future of the Utility Token,” one of the guests made a bold prediction on the crypto market.
Kira Sun, an investment manager at China-based blockchain investment firm BlockVC, stated that he believes the bear market on Bitcoin to be at an end, but that altcoins will take longer to recover.
One of the biggest funds in China is @blockvcfund. Their thesis is that BTC has found a bottom but that Alts have 200 days plus to go. Starts at 35:00.https://t.co/N3EtrpOe4c
— Ran NeuNer (@cryptomanran) September 24, 2018
Sun has prior experience at CITIC Trust as a fund manager and a background in alternative asset management. During an interview with CNBC at an event hosted by BlockVC at Singapore Blockchain Week, he shared his thoughts on Bitcoin and the future of the market.
200 Days Left to Go
When asked if he thought we’d reached the bottom of the bear market, Sun responded:
“I think it depends on how you understand the market structure. We think for Bitcoin itself it has reached a bottom, but for the other cryptocurrencies, it’s far from the end. We think the bearish market is going to be lasting for more than 200 days for cryptocurrency other than bitcoin.”
Sun says these predictions, particularly for BTC, are based on observations of the blockchain network and tracking BTC transactions. Sun believes that BTC is now being traded at what he calls a “reasonable value,” a fair market value based on fundamental analysis of blockchain transactions.
Sun said:
“We calculate the net transaction value of Bitcoin and we think the Bitcoin price has no bubble, now,”
He followed that up by cautioning that Bitcoin could still face a slight dip, but seemed assured that it has stabilized and hit the bottom of its downward fall.
Block VC analyzed past cycles in the cryptocurrency market to come up with the 200-day timeline. Sun claims that analyses of full market cycles show full symmetry between their downward and upward periods. Since we’ve had a downward trend of 200 days, we still have another 200 left before we’ll see a rise in the market again, according to Block VC’s analysis.
‘Diversify your portfolio’
Instead of dumping everything for Bitcoin, Sun recommends transferring your Ethereum into a diversified portfolio consisting of at least five different coins such as Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Ethereum:
“As a…professional portfolio manager, I would stress you to transfer your ETH into a diversified portfolio consisting of more than five components, like Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum EOS; you have to build a very diversified portfolio to mitigate the risk, and provide downward risk protection for yourself.”
