For the first time since Harris’ nomination, the Bitcoin price has decoupled from former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election on Polymarket.
Trump has been leading on the crypto native prediction market Polymarket since April, with odds reaching as high as 72% shortly after the assassination attempt on his life. However, his odds began to falter after Biden dropped out of the race.
Once Bitcoin hit $70,000 and Trump’s odds continued to fall, so did Bitcoin’s price. This led many to believe that, following Trump’s appearance at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, Bitcoin’s price had become correlated with Trump’s chance of returning to the White House.
Overnight, Trump’s odds fell to 49%, their lowest level since May, while Harris’ odds climbed to 50% for the first time since she announced her campaign following a period of sustained momentum. At the same time, Bitcoin rejected the $54,500 support level for the second time and is currently trading around $57,200 as of press time. The chart below shows Bitcoin’s price over the past month (candlesticks) alongside Trump’s Polymarket odds (blue).
On the non-crypto prediction market PredictIt, Harris has taken a 10-point lead over Trump. Harris’ momentum stems from a series of successful swing state rallies and her choice of Tim Walz as her VP pick. While both candidates have an unconfirmed status on Bitcoin, Walz appears to favor tougher regulations on crypto, potentially aligning him with Senator Warren’s approach to the industry. However, Mark Cuban recently commented that the VP’s policy alignments have little effect on Presidential policy,
“What the VP thinks about policy will make for polite conversation on the campaign plane, but is totally meaningless.”
If Harris continues to lead in polls ahead of November, it will be interesting to see whether Bitcoin will regain its correlation with Trump’s odds or continue to rally. Should Trump retake the lead on Polymarket, this may also lead to a positive price movement for Bitcoin. Yet, Fox News has also reported on a new Crypto4Harris campaign, and the Fairshake crypto super PAC has also announced it will be donating to both Republicans and Democrats who have declared support for the industry. The changes indicate the possibility of crypto becoming more of a bipartisan issue for the upcoming election.
Update: Trump retook the lead around 14.00 P.M. BST at 50% to 49%, with Bitcoin trading around $58,000.
