Bitcoin traders eye Trump victory as potential market boost – FT

Former President Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House is expected to trigger a significant surge in Bitcoin’s value, the Financial Times reported July 5, citing various analysts.

According to the FT, the concept of a “Trump trade” is increasingly gaining traction among crypto traders due to the former President’s “perceived pro-crypto stance and policies.”

The flagship crypto’s recent performance has been hindered by sales from miners and regulatory movements by US and German authorities. The anticipated repayments from the Mt. Gox bankruptcy case have also contributed to market volatility, causing Bitcoin to fall below $54,000 for the first time in months.

However, analysts remain optimistic that a Trump victory could lead to a significant rally for Bitcoin, potentially breaking another all-time high in August and reaching $100,000 by Election Day.

As of press time, Bitcoin had rebounded slightly and was trading a little above $56,000, based on CryptoSlate data.

Trump: The Bitcoin Advocate

According to the report, industry leaders are hopeful that a Trump administration, coupled with a strong Republican presence in Congress, will foster a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.

Donald Trump has recently emerged as a notable supporter of the crypto industry. He recently hosted crypto mining executives at his Mar-a-Lago estate and began accepting campaign contributions in digital assets. The former President has made several positive statements regarding crypto in recent weeks, including rumors that he is considering adopting Bitcoin as the country’s reserve asset.

Market analysts suggest that Trump’s pro-crypto stance could significantly enhance Bitcoin’s appeal, potentially driving its price to unprecedented levels. Some market watchers even predict that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by Election Day if Trump wins, the report said.

A potential Trump presidency also brings broader financial market considerations. Policies anticipated under Trump, like stricter immigration controls, increased tariffs, and tax cuts, are expected to swell the US deficit, driving inflation and raising Treasury yields.

Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, highlighted that Trump’s policies might lead to “fiscal dominance,” where significant government deficits and debt undermine the Fed’s ability to control inflation.

Kendrick believes that such a scenario could benefit Bitcoin price, given its correlation with key US Treasury markers. He added that a steeper curve and higher break-even rates than real yields would likely push bitcoin prices higher, positioning it as a hedge against waning confidence in the US Treasury market.

Uncertain Political Landscape

According to the FT, if it becomes clear by late July that President Joe Biden will run for re-election, the probability of a Trump victory will increase, potentially driving Bitcoin to new heights.

However, the report added that the “Trump trade” largely depends on Biden being Trump’s opponent in November. According to the RealClearPolitics Betting Average, Trump currently holds a 55% chance of winning, while Biden stands at 16.5%.

This indicates that as long as Biden stays in the race, Bitcoin enthusiasts are likely to feel optimistic. On the other hand, if Biden withdraws and a new candidate steps in who is considered to have a competitive edge against Trump, Bitcoin’s momentum might falter.

Betting markets, such as Polymarket, have seen substantial wagers on Biden withdrawing from the race, with over $11 million placed on this outcome.

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