Many market oracles are likely to miss their Bitcoin price predictions for the end of 2018. For example, outspoken market soothsayer Thomas Lee said Bitcoin should be trading at nearly four times its current price while going quiet on his long-lasting $25,000 forecast for the end of the year. Many other alleged experts in the space have made similar predictions.
Speaking to Bloomberg, the Fundstrat Global Advisors Co-Founder and Head of Research cited a number of indicators he suggested placed Bitcoin’s fair value between $13,800-14,800, including the number of active wallet addresses, transactions per account, and “factors influencing supply”.
Lee, perhaps one of Wall Street’s most fervent Bitcoin bulls, has traditionally pointed to levels of usership to make price predictions for the number one cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Not all have come to fruition.
Since inaccurately forecasting a lofty 70 percent rally during New York’s Consensus conference in May, the research analyst has repeatedly reaffirmed that Bitcoin would break its all-time high by the close of 2018, and reach $25,000.
#Consensus2018 >7k registered vs est. 2,750 last yr (our est.), 3x increase… hence, crypto market expected to see large moves next week and in 2017, alts rose sharply https://t.co/mj7WArjy1P
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) May 9, 2018
While Lee stated his “independent research boutique” Fundstrat was “tired” of making price predictions, the co-founder said the fair value of Bitcoin could reach $150,000 if the number of BTC wallets approached 315 million, or 7% of Visa’s 4.5 billion accounts.
All Quiet on the Bull Front…for 2018
He wouldn’t be the only one sealing his lips on prices in the wake of November’s ferocious sell-off.
Billionaire chief whip of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, recently expressed remorse over his call in September for a $6,200 bottom in BTC, explaining that at the time it had “felt like the selling was finished”.
This is the BGCI chart…I think we put in a low yesterday. retouched the highs of late last year and the point of acceleration that led to the massive rally/bubble… markets like to retrace to the breakout..we retraced the whole of the bubble. #callingabottom pic.twitter.com/EasTBYgjSj
— Michael Novogratz (@novogratz) September 13, 2018
Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Yusko also looks to have quieted down on his April prediction of a $25,000 Bitcoin by the end of the year, instead proclaiming that Bitcoin would “one day” be worth $400,000.
#Bitcoin is #JustGettingWarmedUp
$25,000 end of 2018
$75,000 end of 2020
$200,000 end of 2022
$500,000 end of 2024 https://t.co/3ZarEFIRxH— Mark W. Yusko (@MarkYusko) April 21, 2018
Even Yusko’s perennially bullish colleague, Anthony Pompliano, swallowed his “high confidence” on a $50,000 end-of-year close and conceded in August that $3000 was the more likely draw on price.
I’ve revised my Bitcoin outlook after spending more time digging through data than I would like to admit. I’m still very bullish, but it may take longer than anticipated: https://t.co/TYEuoBaChh pic.twitter.com/yjF0VRt5Ey
— Pomp ? (@APompliano) August 24, 2018
Having spent the first half of 2018 in the $50,000 camp, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes in July also reined in notions of bullishness and called for $5000—a figure he slashed in early November, describing $2000-3000 as the “sweet spot” for a bottom.
Both Pompliano and Hayes may find vindication in their revised predictions, however, with Bitcoin pressing down into the $3200-mark at time of press.
I’ve stuck to my $50,000 Bitcoin price target for end of year 2018.
Still have high confidence on the $50,000 number. The timeframe is the big unknown.
The next 5 months will be fun to watch.
— Pomp ? (@APompliano) July 25, 2018
It is dubious whether anyone can predict prices in a market as volatile as the cryptocurrency markets, even more so over a multi-year time horizon. Understandably, it seems that many of these supposed experts have missed their marks for 2018.
