Despite the short-term volatility Bitcoin has faced, the cryptocurrency has held up surprisingly well, holding the crucial $9,500 support on a daily and weekly basis as if its life depended on it.
A number of prominent analysts, such as Filb Filb, have argued that BTC’s ability to maintain a price above $9,500 is a clear-as-day sign the cryptocurrency will continue higher in the coming weeks.
Though the next leg higher that investors across the board are waiting for may not happen, a top analyst with a quite accurate track record has recently warned.
Litecoin is flagging, suggesting BTC may soon fall too
In an analysis published Feb. 23, amid Sunday’s brief market recovery that took Bitcoin above $10,000, analyst Smart Contracter warned of impending market weakness.
He noted that Litecoin’s recovery on the weekend felt like a “wave B” to me, which per Elliot Wave theory, should be followed by a “wave C” retracement that is likely to bring the cryptocurrency to $59 — 20 percent lower than the current price of Bitcoin, and around 25 percent lower than the asset was trading when Smart Contracter published the below analysis.
i like tracking $ltc as a guage for alt strength, its done me well in the past.
this whole weekend price action feels like a wave B flat to me and a deeper wave C is still yet to come.
im basically flat now and just not liking the vibes im getting from the majors RN pic.twitter.com/Pav6BY2D1V
— ??Benjamin Blunts?? (@SmartContracter) February 23, 2020
This is relevant for Bitcoin because LTC has long acted as a pseudo-bellwether for the rest of the cryptocurrency market.
The most memorable case of this was in the first half of 2019, which is when LTC started rallying dozens of percent higher week over week while Bitcoin flatlined around $4,000. For around two months, the asset rallied on its own, then was followed by BTC and the rest of this nascent asset class.
Litecoin’s ability to precede the rest of the market is important because it suggests that should LTC start crash here, so too should Bitcoin.
While many crypto investors are skeptical of the validity of Elliot Wave analysis, Smart Contracter has a strong track record in analyzing the ever-volatile cryptocurrency markets, giving credence to his commentary.
In the middle of 2018, when Bitcoin was in the midst of a bear market, Smart Contracter revealed at which point he expects BTC to bottom, writing:
“I’m calling a bottom at exactly 3.2k with a 200 dollar leeway either side.”
By the middle of December, his forecast was proven to be right when Bitcoin plunged from $6,000 to a low of $3,150 over the span of a few weeks, then established a macro bottom at that level.
Long-term bullish
While Smart Contracter is warning of blood in the streets in the short term, he is bullish on Bitcoin (and presumably other cryptocurrencies) from a longer-term perspective.
Late January, he posted the below chart, remarking that Bitcoin is in the midst of a five-wave rise from the $6,000s.
His Elliot Wave analysis suggests that Bitcoin has a high likelihood of breaking $14,000 — 45 percent above the current price point of $9,600 — by the middle of 2020, likely around or just after the time of the block reward reduction in May 2020.
